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Friday, July 24, 2015

President Trump: Without a Majority of Popular Vote and Without a Majority of Electoral College Vote.





Of course it is unlikely, but it is possible that Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders could wind up becoming president even if he as a candidate on the November, 2016 ballot does not receive more popular votes than any other candidate and does not receive more electoral college votes than any other candidate.

How one gets elected president is provided for in the Constitution Article II as amended.

In the simplest situation one major party candidate gets a majority of electoral college votes and the other major party candidate gets a smaller number of electoral votes and none of the other candidates get any electoral votes. 

Getting a majority of electoral votes gets you elected president even if sometimes the candidate with the most electoral votes is not the one with the most popular votes as happened with Bush v. Gore in 2000.

When a third party or independent candidate who appears to have substantial support joins the two major party candidates on the November ballot, the election outcome may involve other scenarios.  First of all, it is unlikely that either major party candidate will receive a majority of the popular vote.

In 1992, no candidate had a majority of popular support, but a major party candidate received a majority of the electoral votes.  Bill Clinton received 43.01 per cent of the popular vote and 370 electoral college votes and George H. W. Bush received 37.45 per cent of the popular vote and 168 electoral college votes.  In that election the third-party candidate, Ross Perot received 18.91 per cent of the popular vote, but no electoral college votes.

In 1968, although there was a third party candidate who received electoral college votes, the winning candidate, Richard Nixon, had a substantial majority of electoral votes.  The results were:

Nixon:  301 Electoral College; 43.4 per cent popular vote.
Humphrey:  191 Electoral College; 42.7 per cent popular vote.
Wallace:  46 Electoral College; 8.4 per cent popular vote.

Now consider the situation if, with a popular third party or independent candidate, no candidate gets a majority of the electoral college vote.

According to Article II of the Constitution and Amendment 12, if no candidate receives a majority of the electoral college votes for president, the election is decided by House of Representatives among the three candidates receiving the greatest number of electoral college votes; the House votes by state, one vote per state, with a majority of all the states needed to elect.

So the result can be that the president can be elected without a majority of popular vote and without a majority of electoral college vote.



Friday, July 17, 2015

The Declaration of Independence



The Fourth of July is a holiday on which Americans celebrate our achieving independence from Great Britain.  Independence, of course, was not obtained on the Fourth but it is the day the Declaration of Independence was approved by the Second Continental Congress as the rationale for independence.

The Declaration of Independence is best remembered for its statements of belief:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed . . . .

The bold assertion of the signers’ closing statement is also well remembered:
And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

Americans will recall that the Declaration of Independence contained a long list of complaints personally attributed to the “present King of Great Britain” including, “For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent.”  Many government actions cited as grievances against King George III were later prohibited in the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights to the US Constitution.

The Declaration of Independence reflects many years of evolving concepts of the role of one nation among other nations, English rights and liberties and parliamentary ascendancy over the British monarch.

While work is still needed to accomplish the rhetoric of the Declaration of Independence, it has been an inspiration for the drafters of the US Constitution and the framework of government of many other nations and of US states and has also served as an inspiration to the writers of subsequent declarations—many of which embraced goals which may have seemed unattainable at the time.

The Declaration of Sentiments and Resolutions passed by the Woman’s Rights Convention, held at Seneca Falls, NY, in 1848 began with the first ten words of the Declaration of Independence and included an extensive list of grievances and omissions. The Seneca Falls declaration proclaimed, that “all men and women are created equal.”

On July 6, this year, in the Huffington Post, U.S. Congressman Alan Grayson (Florida’s 9th District) called for a new declaration of independence from oppression.  Rep. Grayson cited bigotry, 1984-style surveillance, misinformation, and narrow-minded, extremist or violent religious fundamentalists as evils.  On workers’ exploitation, he said that, “Bad bosses are today's King George.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-alan-grayson/my-new-declaration-of-independence_b_7727628.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

For an extended discussion, see David Armitage’s article, “The Declaration of Independence in Global Perspective.” http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/road-revolution/essays/declaration-independence-global-perspective